Navigating the Spectrum Frontier: Four Major Upcoming U.S. Spectrum Moves
Over the next 18–24 months, U.S. spectrum policy will be shaped by two FCC auctions, a probable negotiated settlement involving DISH/EchoStar’s portfolio, and ongoing divestitures from UScellular (now Array Digital Infrastructure). This post outlines what to expect, why it matters, and how Airwave Research and the new FCC Radar platform can help you stay ahead.
1) AWS‑3 Reauction (Auction 113, AU 25‑117): predictable winners, thinner bidding
Auction 113 is the FCC’s reoffer of inventory AWS‑3 licenses. Congress requires the Commission to initiate this auction by June 23, 2026, under the Spectrum & Secure Technology and Innovation Act. AU Docket 25‑117 sets the procedures and timeline. The FCC’s auction page has some information on inventory and a technical guide for bidders.
Even with carrier aggregation, contiguity wins. The most significant value uplift comes from turning adjacent blocks into wider, contiguous channels – resulting in lower guard overhead, a simpler RF design, and higher spectral efficiency. That often means one or two natural buyers (the adjacent owners) per market.
Why might pricing underwhelm? The subscribers-only white paper, Airwave Research Spectrum Valuation, analyzes recent secondary-market trades and shows how limited-buyer settings tend to settle below the headline benchmarks from the original AWS-3 era.
The Airwave Research platform enables analysis of the future state of the AWS-3 and pinpoints adjacent assets for each inventoried license. You can also calculate the expected value of each permit up for auction. Plus, we can help you review past mobile auctions and access the largest secondary market database of mobile transactions.
FCC Radar tracks Auction 113 filings (in AU 25‑117) and clusters issues/stakeholders so strategy teams can produce a comprehensive stakeholder map of the band. It also cross‑references current UScellular transfer/assignment proceedings with T‑Mobile (GN 24‑286), Verizon/Cellco (WT 25‑192), and AT&T/New Cingular (WT 25‑150).
2) Upper C‑Band (3.98–4.2 GHz), GN Docket 25‑59: two‑tranche supply due to radio‑altimeter protection
The FCC launched GN Docket 25‑59 to examine freeing 3.98–4.2 GHz while protecting radio altimeters (RAs) operating at 4.2–4.4 GHz. The NOI asks about technical rules, coexistence, and timing.
Why do not all 220 MHz arrive on Day 1? The binding constraint isn’t in‑band issues between the existing C-band satellite operators and the future mobile operators; it’s out‑of‑band emissions (OOBE) into RAs and the pace of aircraft retrofits. Expect a phased release: Tranche 1 (~100–120 MHz) will be broadly usable with airport-proximate constraints; Tranche 2 (the upper portion closest to 4.2 GHz) will be introduced as RA retrofits mature.
Airwave Research assists in analyzing upper mid-band spectrum, which this auction will expand into. Use the Rankings module to compare existing operators within any OET geographic boundary, taking into account both leased spectrum and pending transactions.
FCC Radar clusters aviation stakeholders (FAA, RTCA/ALPA, avionics) and telco filings (in docket GN 25‑59) so you can see where the record is converging on OOBE masks, airport mitigations, and timing.
3) DISH/EchoStar: toward a negotiated settlement (buildouts + MSS)
Two live proceedings frame EchoStar/DISH’s path: WT Docket 22‑212 (build‑out extensions and a VTel petition for reconsideration) and SB Docket 25‑173 (Space Bureau inquiry into 2 GHz MSS usage and potential policy changes, including additional MSS entrants). DOJ conditions from the Sprint–T‑Mobile transaction also inform any sale or divestiture options.
The pragmatic outcome is a structured settlement: (i) extended/clarified milestones, (ii) a defined MSS compliance path, and (iii) selective partitions/disaggregations rather than a wholesale sale. For mechanics related to possible AWS-4 break-ups (e.g., SDL at 2180–2200 MHz), see the Airwave Research blog on DISH AWS-4 scenarios.
FCC Radar tracks WT 22‑212 and SB 25‑173, auto‑classifies arguments and maps stakeholder coalitions so you can anticipate outcomes and prepare comments or ex parte talking points quickly.
4) UScellular’s continuing spectrum sales (now Array Digital Infrastructure)
UScellular has completed the sale of its wireless operations and is rebranding as Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc., retaining its towers, non-controlling interests, and a spectrum estate positioned for monetization.
Airwave Research tracks the remaining licensed tail (1,247 licenses) by band and geography, and models the most likely sale sequence based on adjacency and spectrum-screen headroom. These are private sales with FCC-authorized transactions where neighboring owners often hold significant value.
The Airwave Research Band Plan tool (and National Spectrum Grid) makes neighboring‑block discovery instant; screen scenarios flag enhanced‑criteria hits for any proposed buyer; and valuation models produce market‑by‑market ranges that reflect adjacency premiums (not just headline MHz‑pop). At a glance, the Rankings tool will explain who is predominant in a band and is likely to consolidate the band through acquisition.
Strategy takeaways
Adjacency > optionality in AWS‑3 reoffers. Prices will be set by who sits next door, not by generic MHz-pop comps from 2014– 15. (See subscribers‑only Airwave Research Spectrum Valuation white paper on limited‑buyer markets.)
Upper C‑Band is phased. Budget for an initial ~100–120 MHz with airport‑area constraints, and a second tranche as RA retrofits are completed. Use FCC Radar to track GN 25‑59 across aviation and telecom stakeholders.
DISH/EchoStar likely resolves via a regulatory‑engineered settlement (milestones + MSS + targeted divestitures). Use FCC Radar to monitor WT 22‑212 and SB 25‑173 as arguments and coalitions evolve.
Array’s spectrum is an adjacency‑and‑screen exercise. Faster diligence—maps, screens, and valuation bands—wins allocations and avoids surprises.
Quick‑reference matrix
Initiative | Type | Timing window | Core constraint | Practical implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AWS-3 (Auction 113, AU 25-117) | FCC auction (inventory reoffer) | Late-2025 → by Jun 23, 2026 | Thin natural-buyer sets; adjacency dominates | Prices track contiguity; competitive tension limited. |
Upper C-Band (3.98–4.2 GHz, GN 25-59) | FCC NOI → auction | 2026 (two tranches likely) | RA protection + airport mitigations & retrofit pace | First ~100–120 MHz broadly usable; remainder as retrofits mature. |
DISH/EchoStar | FCC/DOJ negotiated path | 2025+ | WT 22-212 (buildouts) + SB 25-173 (MSS) | Milestone clarity + selective divestitures; watch screens/approvals. |
UScellular → Array | Ongoing private sales | 2025–2026 | Buyer adjacency & screens | Package licenses to maximize contiguity and pass screen limits. |
Where Airwave Research and FCC Radar fit in
Spectrum Valuation (subscribers‑only)
The white paper quantifies limited-buyer effects using the latest secondary-market comps and adjacency-premium modeling.
Maps & Bandplan
Visualize the aggregation of the remaining ~1,247 licenses, or drill band‑by‑band to see likely buyers (adjacent owners).
Spectrum Screen in Seconds
Generate enhanced‑criteria screen exhibits for complete portfolios or bespoke call‑sign lists.
FCC Radar
Track AU 25‑117 (Auction 113), GN 25‑59 (Upper C‑Band), WT 22‑212, SB 25‑173, and the UScellular assignment/transfer dockets (GN 24‑286, WT 25‑192, WT 25‑150) with issues, stakeholders, filings, and alerts in one place.
Helpful links
Airwave Research: Dish AWS‑4 Scenarios: https://www.airwaveresearch.com/blog/dish-aws-4-scenarios
Airwave Research Platform: https://www.airwaveresearch.com/
FCC Radar (docket tracking & issue/stakeholder analysis): https://www.fccradar.com/
Auction 113 - Advanced Wireless Services (AWS-3): https://www.fcc.gov/auction/113
Authors
Zev Stravitz